A comparative assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 in hydrological responses of the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract Investigation of the role multiple general circulation model (GCM) ensembles in obtaining comprehensive knowledge hydrological responses across Yellow River Basin (YRB), China, is still substantial importance. This study evaluates performance Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models simulating regime YRB and compares results with those from CMIP 5 (CMIP5). The comparison performed between 21 GCMs CMIP6 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios 18 CMIP5 Representative Concentration scenarios. Raw outputs are first corrected downscaled by Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation methods, bias-corrected GCM then employed to drive Soil Water Assessment Tool project streamflow. After correction downscaling, areal averages for future changes (relative 1971–2000) temperature precipitation found larger than CMIP5. emblematic annual mean increases 1.64–2.20 2.31–5.29 °C period 2026–2055 2066–2095, while counterpart 1.92–2.39 1.68–4.76 °C, respectively. In terms precipitation, CMIP6, it 3.45–4.70 6.77–15.40%, 2.58–2.96 3.83–9.95%. It further concluded that: (1) streamflow will probably decrease less that most cases, climate this kind affect regional water supply security YRB; (2) uncertainty projected dominated contribution rate >75%; (3) more sensitive near future. contrast, reduction attributed an increase a almost >60% far